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Russia is experiencing a demographic catastrophe, with deaths significantly outnumbering births, which has long been a source of concern for Putin and could be worsened by the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia's population is shrinking under Vladimir Putin's leadership. According to statistics, Russia had a population of 148.4 million people when the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. While the Russian Federation has just slightly less than that number today — 144 million — the downward trend is clear when compared to the rest of the world.
Russia began encouraging individuals to have more children in 2006, and one of the top orders of the Russian Federation's National Goals and Strategic Objectives in 2018 was to ensure sustained natural population increase.
Putin said total population was insufficient in November 2021, noting that the country had just 81 million individuals of working age.
Despite his efforts, fertility figures remain unchanged, with 1.5 children born per woman on average. Demographers agree that for a population to expand, this figure should be around 2.1.
The situation is exacerbated by Russians' shorter life expectancy, which is over a decade shorter than that of other countries. Furthermore, according to recent data, Russia saw almost one million extra deaths because of the pandemic.
These unfavorable figures are thought to be one of the reasons Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place: to reintegrate the region into what he refers to as the Russian "family."
Recent data suggests, however, that the protracted conflict is worsening the situation, as Russia faces a recession due to economic sanctions, and educated professionals and young people move for better opportunities — a phenomenon known as "brain drain." According to a Russian source, between 50,000 and 70,000 tech employees have deserted the country since the conflict began.
The economic impact of the brain-drain, along with the effects of the epidemic and sanctions, are likely to compound Russia's declining demographic situation by lowering birth rates as people opt not to have more children owing to economic hardship.
According to independent demographers, the effects of Russia's impending economic collapse will begin to be felt early next year, with the total fertility rate plummeting 10% in the next two years.
